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Grade 3 Inglewood Handicap

April 26th, 2012

Opening day is done and it was an eventful one with even-money favorite American Act getting up for the win in the feature Harry Henson even though he was running closer to the grandstand than to the inner rail.

Friday is night race at Hollywood with first post scheduled for 10:05 ET. The feature on the day is the Grade 3 Inglewood Handicap, which marks the 2012 debut of multiple Grade 1-winner Acclamation.

The six-year-old horse has won five straight races dating back to May of last year and enters the Inglewood as the 4-5 favorite. If he is ready to roll off the long layoff then the others are running for second. Holladay Road looks best to round out the exacta with Smug hitting it in gear late to grab third.

With the expected short price in the Inglewood it may be best to play the pick-5, which starts in race one. The first couple of races look like they may not be the best chances to take a shot with price horses, but races four and five may offer that opportunity.

Race four is a claiming race going six and one-half on the cushion track with the morning line favorite stuck on the inside and winless in his last eleven starts with his last win coming in December 2009. Bryan Daniel drops back to the class level of his last win and he did run well over the surface in December. Lana’s Smile is the probable pace-setter for trainer Craig Lewis.

The fifth is an allowance race at one mile on the turf and the morning line favorite Gab Power looks like a trifecta chance, but may find the win end just a bit short. Empire Way makes his first start on the turf and it may just be to see if likes the surface, but is dropping out of four straight graded races against straight three-year-olds. Unusual Jazz likes to win and will be running late for a trainer who’s only two wins of the year are by this horse. Circa’sgoldengear on the stretchout will try to take them wire-to-wire and is one-for-three over the course.

With the low takeout the pick-5 will still pay well even with Acclamation. Of course if you can beat that one then expect big balloons.

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Hollywood Park Opening Day

April 25th, 2012

The Southern California racing circuit moves from Pasadena to Inglewood this Thursday with the opening of Hollywood Park.

The opening day card includes a total of eight races with the $70,000 Harry Henson stakes the feature. The six furlong turf race drew a field of eight led by morning line favorite American Act.

American Act is dropping out of a pair of graded stakes races on the main track at Santa Anita including the Grade 2 San Felipe where he was seventh behind Creative Cause and Bodemeister, two horses that are expected to be among the betting choices for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

A return to sprinting is probably what is needed for the Quiet American gelding, but the distance is still a concern. His only win was at five and one-half furlongs at Santa Anita, defeating Bodemeister by two lengths.

He does have one start over the course and distance last December, finishing second in a maiden special weight race.

One horse that has winning experience on the turf is the second choice on the morning line Koast.

Koast has won back-to-back races on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita in wire-to-wire fashion. The course configuration at Hollywood Park is the complete opposite and Koast was done no favors by drawing the outside post.

Two horses with speed that did draw well are Sir Allison and Chickie Charms. Sir Allison is trained by Bob Baffert and is looking to make it back-to-back wins after breaking his maiden at six furlongs over the main track at Santa Anita. He will be making his first start on the turf after four runs on the dirt and synthetic.

Chickie Charms just broke his maiden over the main track at Santa Anita is an off-the-turf race after not being able to win in four starts on the turf. Three of those were down the hill and it would appear as if the traditional course at Hollywood Park would suit him well.

The horse that may get the best trip and is bred top and bottom to be outstanding on the turf is Consulado. Drawn post five he is likely to be sitting a stalking trip outside of Sir Allison and Chickie Charms.

Senor Rain, eight in the Santa Anita Derby last out, and Passing Game, fifth in a $200,000 state-bred stakes, are the closers in the field, but may be up against it with the rails out ten feet.

First post on Thursday is 4:00 ET with the Harry Henson going to post at 7:09. Race one starts the 50-cent pick-5, which has a low takeout rate of 14%.

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Santa Anita Closing Day

April 22nd, 2012

Sunday at Santa Anita is closing day, which means the pick-6 must be paid out. Unfortunately there is no carryover to spice up the day; however, there is the Grade 2 San Juan Capistrano Handicap.

The first leg of the pick-6, race 5, is a claiming race at one mile on the turf. Van Brit is the morning line favorite for Vladimir Cerin, who is having an excellent meet. Van Brit won at this class level two back and is the mare to beat. Halfapondarosa, Entabeni and Taxi Ride and the top choices to upset the favorite.

Race six is a maiden claiming race going two turns on the main track. Dropping from the maiden special weight ranks Turn On the Pumps is the horse to beat. On Holy Ground is also dropping from a maiden special weight race and is actually making a bigger drop as Turn On the Pumps was facing Cal-bred or sired maidens. Sidepocket Kid and Outta Splash also fit.

Back on the turf for race seven and the start of the late pick-4. Barney Rebel is going to try to take them wire-to-wire, but the pick is morning line favorite Fire With Fire, making his second start off the layoff.

Maiden claimers go six and one-half furlongs on the main track in race eight with six horses between 5-2 and 6-1 on the morning line. Soi Phet was second at this level two starts back and is the probable post-time favorite picking up leading rider Joel Rosario. Bringon the Wain drops in class and is looking to pick up the first win this meet for trainer Gary Sherlock.

Race nine is the San Juan Cap and Bourbon Bay is going to be tough to beat at 6-5 on the morning line. Trainer Neil Drysdale could have a big day with Fire With Fire and Bourbon Bay. Dhaamer exits a second place finish in a twelve-furlong marathon on the main track and is the second choice on the morning line. Eagle Poise and Harrods Creek are shipping west for Graham Motion and Bill Mott. They are top marathon turf horses on the east coast and could upset the favorites.

The finale for the day and the meet is a maiden claiming race for three-year-olds sprinting on the main track. Midnight Con is the morning line favorite, but is no lock after four second in his nine career starts. Givimaway gets an extra furlong to set up his late running kick and is 4-1 on the morning line. A couple of probable long shots are Master Rudy, Sheriff Ryan and Very Unusual.

First post on Sunday at Santa Anita is 3:30 ET with the pick-6 going to post at 5:34.

That’s a wrap for the Santa Anita meet. Stay tuned to BetAmerica for handicapping analysis of the next southern California meet, Hollywood Park.

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Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes

April 19th, 2012

The feature race at Keeneland on Friday is the Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes for older fillies and mares and it may be a good shot to bet against the favorites.

Pachattack is the 9-5 morning line favorite and can absolutely win, but she is making her first start since early November and could need a race before she shows her best. She was second over this track in the Grade 1 Spinster last October and won the Grade 3 Matron over the Arlington Park synthetic surface in last May.

Joyful Victory is the 3-1 second choice and the pick against her is based on her trainer’s statistics over synthetics. Larry Jones is a great trainer, but he has five wins in 61 starts on synthetics the last five years. That’s an 8 win percent for a trainer normally in the 25-30 percent range. The numbers are actually worse if you just consider Keeneland. Over the last five years at Keeneland his runners are 2-for-51.

So where will the upset come from?

The pace of the race is a little questionable with none of the fillies or mares true front-runners. Principal Role does have some “tracked leaders” and “prominent” comments on her European running lines, but those were in races longer than the Doubledogdare.

Kathmanblu has not run since finishing nowhere in the QEII Cup at Keeneland last October and is far from her two-year-old form.

My Pal Chrisy and Lunar Miss look hopeless so that leaves La Gran Bailadora and Sea Level Drive. La Gran Bailadora makes her second start of 2012 after winning four of her eleven starts last year. She is winless in three starts at Keeneland, but five of her six career wins have been over a synthetic surface.

Sea Level Drive is a perfect two-for-two at Keeneland and has three wins and a second in four career starts on synthetics. She exits a good fourth place finish in the Grade 3 Hillsborough behind Zagora and will run her best race third off the layoff.

Of course Pachattack and Joyful Victory could be just too classy for these, but it’s always fun to beat the favorites. Post time for the Doubledogdare is 5:13 ET.

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Kentucky Derby Top 15 – Round 6

April 18th, 2012

With the major Kentucky Derby prep races now complete the Bet America Kentucky Derby Top 15 had undergone and massive facelift. One horse jumped all the way from eighth to third and a horse not ranked last time debuting at seven; let’s take a look. (Last week’s ranking in parenthesis)

1. Gemologist (2)
2. Union Rags (1)
3. Bodemeister (8)
4. Creative Cause (5)
5. Alpha (3)
6. Hansen (4)
7. Dullahan (NR)
8. I’ll Have Another (11)
9. Take Charge Indy (10)
10. Daddy Nose Best (15)
11. Went the Day Well (13)
12. Sabercat (14)
13. Done Talking (14)
14. Mark Valeski (6)
15. El Padrino (7)

The biggest changes in the list belong to Bodemeister and Dullahan, who are coming off of authoritative victories in Arkansas and Kentucky.

Bodemeister skipped the Santa Anita Derby and shipped to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas and could not have been more impressive. Breaking from post eleven the Empire Maker-colt sped to the lead under jockey Mike Smith and was never threatened en route to a nine and one-half length victory.

His victory in the Arkansas Derby validated the runs by both I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause, who were first and second in the Santa Anita Derby.

Dullahan was making his second start off a layoff in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, a race in which he was facing the two-year-old champion Hansen. Hansen set an uncontested pace, but was no match late for Dullahan, who was closing like a freight train, weaving his way through horses, under jockey Kent Desormeaux.

These same connections ran Paddy O’Prado to a good third place in the Kentucky Derby in 2010 plus Dullahan was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs last year and he is a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Add that up and Dullahan splashes down at number seven.

Less of a change, but equally as important is the switch of the first and second ranked horses. Gemologist remained a perfect five-for-five when he won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Alpha made a menacing run into the stretch, but could not get back and it appeared as if Gemologist would have never let him by at any point of the run. Gemologist would have stamped himself as the probably morning line favorite if not for the run by Bodemeister.

Union Rags drops a spot to two and is going to be one of the first three choices come post time. He appears to be a horse that needs to get going early and not have any traffic. Good luck with that in the Derby with 19 other horses.

A couple of droppers in the list are due to where they sit on the graded earnings list. Mark Valeski and El Padrino are currently outside of the top twenty, but not all of the runners above them are expected to start. It’s also partly due to the poor performance. Valeski lost by a next to El Padrino, who then didn’t run a step in the Florida Derby finishing behind Take Charge Indy, Reveron and Union Rags. After that Valeski then couldn’t out finish 109-1 long shot Hero of Order, who then finished last of thirteen, beaten over 20 lengths, in the Blue Grass.

Stay tuned to the Bet America Newsletter and Blog for all your updates on the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Only eighteen more days to go. It’s never too soon to start handicapping.

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