The Kentucky Oaks field for Friday, May 4 was drawn on Tuesday and a full field of 14 will line up for the $1-million race with one filly on the also-eligible list.
This year’s post position draw created some drama going into the race on Friday with the likely top two betting choices drawing posts one and two. Also two other fillies that are expected to take a lot of support are drawn in three and four.
Before we get to the favorite’s the two fillies that got the best of the post assignments are Broadway’s Alibi and Sacrity, who are both 4-1 on the morning line.
Broadway’s Alibi will be breaking from post six in the Oaks and is making her first start around two turns. She has been nothing short of impressive in her five career starts with the only defeat coming in the first start of her career. She exits a front-running win in the Grade 3 Comely and has been in front by a length or more in his last four starts. With her post position; however, she is likely to stalk the early pace. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race twice in the last 10 years including Ashado in 2004 with jockey John Velazquez, who gets the mount on Broadway’s Alibi.
Sacristy was drawn right next to Broadway’s Alibi in post seven and with the switch to jockey Mike Smith will definitely be doing her best running late. She is making her first start around two turns and first start at greater than seven furlongs. In January she finished nearly 19 lengths behind Broadway’s Alibi in the Grade 2 Forward Gal at Gulfstream Park.
The favorite on the morning line for the Oaks is Grace Hall for trainer Tony Dutrow and owners Michael Dubb, Bethlehelm Stables and The Elkstone Group.
Grace Hall was done no favors drawing post two, which could force her hand in the early going. On her past performances she appears to be a better filly with a target in front of her. One of the biggest obstacles that she will try to overcome is the history of the fillies coming out of the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Since 1992 only one filly has won the Oaks at Gulfstream Park then came back to win the Kentucky Oaks. Eleven of those winners failed to make the Kentucky Oaks and that’s a list that includes R Heat Lightning, Justwhistledixie, My Flag and Inside Information.
Getting the worst of the draw with post position one was On Fire Baby. The Smoke Glacken-filly has won four of six lifetime starts including a perfect two-for-two at Churchill Downs. She has only run twice this year and may be keyed up in the early stages.
Looking over the race it would appear to have a lot of early speed. Not only will On Fire Baby, Grace Hall and Broadway’s Alibi be pushing the pace, but there is also Eden’s Moon, Believe You Can, Amie’s Dini and Yara who are all expected to show speed. The trainer/jockey combination of Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia for Eden’s Moon won the Oaks last year in style with Plum Pretty, who coincidentally is entered in the La Troienne in race six earlier in the day and will be the heaviest favorite on the card.
With the expected pace the closers are going to have dead aim on the front-runners heading into the stretch. Summer Applause finished a neck behind Believe You Can in the Fair Grounds Oaks and with the switch to Garrett Gomez, winning jockey in the 2007 Kentucky Oaks, should be motoring late.
Jemima’s Pearl is the “other” Bob Baffert filly in the race and just finished third behind Mamma Kimbo and Amie’s Dini. Mamma Kimbo may have been the favorite if she entered the Oaks, but trainer Bob Baffert will wait until two weeks from now to run her in the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico. Jemima’s Pearl won her U.S. and dirt debut at Santa Anita in early March and has been working with probable Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister.
Rounding out the field are Hard Not to Like, And Why Not, Karlovy Vary and Colonial Empress with Oaks Lily on the AE-list. And Why Not may have more upside of these fillies if you can forgive the non-effort in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her last.
Post time for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday is 5:45 ET.
Stay tuned to Bet America all week for analysis of the undercard on Kentucky Oaks day as well as the Kentucky Derby.
Posted by Matt Carter
