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Even though favorites Izzy Rules and La Sombre won on Friday there were enough upsets in the pick-6 sequence to create a carryover into the Saturday card. The Pick-6 starts with race 5, post time 5:34 ET, and includes the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the Grade 3 Strub Stakes. Those two races are broken down in this week’s BetAmerica Newsletter so let’s take a look at the remaining four races.

Race five is a maiden special weight on the downhill turf course with Euro-shipper Belle Passe the 5-2 morning line favorite. The Van Nistelrooy-filly was second in her debut by a head in May 2011 at the Curragh in Ireland. After the favorite, Sydney’s Darling, Mirror Ball, Miss Communication and My Sweet Candy are between 7-2 and 9-2 on the morning line. First-time-starters Dubai Cyclone and Enchanted Dreams as well as Calder-shipper Ramona’s Ride deserve respect if there is tote support.

Race six is the Robert Lewis with Liaison the 9-5 morning line favorite then race seven goes back to the turf course for a nine-furlong allowance race.

Contention runs deep in race seven and can go a number of ways. Truism, Depreciable, Acaffella, Tippety Tap Tap, Joy Boy, Gap Power, Twin Six and Unusual Jazz are all between 9-2 and 8-1 on the morning line. The morning line favorite is Gab Power for trainer Peter Eurton. In ten career runs on the turf Gab Power has been in-the-money seven times. Unusual Jazz and long shot Tiz Gianni are the only two with wins at the nine-furlong distance. Silver Spun puts the blinkers on for his second start off the layoff, comes into the race off a bullet workout and keeps the hot-riding Corey Nakatani in the irons.

The odds of Corey’s mount in race eight is going to be a lot lower than Silver Spun when he takes the 6-5 favorite Tapizar postward in the Grade 2 Strub. Come and catch him.

Back on the downhill turf course for race nine, this time with a field of twelve. Crossing The Line is 7-2 on the morning line, but has failed as the favorite in his last five races. He does own two wins on over the course, but will need to put in a top effort to get home. Mark the Bench is another player for trainer Mike Mitchell cutting back in distance from a mile race. Loro drops into a claiming race for the first time and must be respected. Devoted Magic was off for over two years, then came back to an easy score up north in a low-level claiming race. The eight-year-old gelding ships to Santa Anita and has a win over the course. That win; however, was way back in October 2008. Striking Spirit take a 50-percent cut in claiming price for his second start off a layoff and is the mount for Nakatani.

The finale is a good allowance optional claiming race on the main track with the overhyped Setsuko installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite. He drops out of five straight graded races including three Grade 1’s, but only has one win in 16 races and simply cannot be trusted. Graeme Crackerjack aired in his last race and is on the improve for hot trainer Jeff Bonde. Welcome Home Ryan fits off his last race, but his trainer is the complete opposite of Jeff Bonde. Jerry Hollendorfer has sent 27 horses to the post this meet and only has two wins to show for it. Fiddlers Afleet, Industry Leader and Coluda could upset, but the choice is the four-year-old gelding American Blend. After an eighth-place finish in his debut on the Hollywood Park turf course in May 2011 American Blend came back in late December to break his maiden at Santa Anita. His breeding is top notch and can win if he can get good position from post ten.

The two stakes races could be the singles for most people wagering on the Pick-6, but even if they do win the other races are so wide open that it’s going to pay well. Check back tomorrow for final picks after scratches are announced.

With all the first round of the 2012 three-year-old prep races done across the country it’s time to take a first look at the BetAmerica Kentucky Derby Top 15.  A lot can change between now and May, but for now here’s the list. 

1. Union Rags
2. Mr. Bowling
3. Liaison
4. Gemologist
5. Algorithms
6. Out of Bounds
7. Junebugred
8. Alpha
9. Hansen
10. Creative Cause
11. Ever So Lucky
12. O’Prado Again
13. El Padrino
14. Discreet Dancer
15. Sabercat

Union Rags tops the list based on his 2011 campaign, which finished with a second place finish to Hansen in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  After winning the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont, Union Rags was sent off as the even-money favorite in the Juvenile.  Drawing post ten was probably the reason for the defeat as the Dixie Union-colt was wide the entire trip.  Off since then Union Rags is eyeing a return in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on February 26.

Hansen won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but plummets down the list based on his performance in the Holy Bull last weekend.  After stumbling at the start the nearly white colt made the lead on his own, but was run down late by the impressive Algorithms.

Algorithms is trained by Todd Pletcher, who also has Gemologist, El Padrino and Discreet Dancer on the list.  Gemologist is number four after his win over the highly touted Ever So Lucky, who will be starting in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park on February 4, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in November.  El Padrino won an allowance race over Take Charge Indy, who was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, on the same day as the Holy Bull and looks like a horse who will love ten-furlongs.  Discreet Dancer has been uber impressive in his two races, a maiden and an allowance at Gulfstream Park, and gives Pletcher a hot hand in the upcoming months. 

Pletcher has the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, March 31, at Gulfstream Park as well the Risen Star, February 25 at Fair Grounds, and the Southwest, February 20 at Oaklawn Park as possible races for his foursome.

Should Pletcher ship one or more of his horses out-of-town then he is going to have to face the winner’s from the local prep races Mr. Bowling at Fair Grounds and Junebugred at Oaklawn Park.  Mr. Bowling won the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes by a head and is expected to move on to the Risen Star while Junebugred took the Smarty Jones by a neck with a rail-skimming ride by Jersey Joe Bravo.

The Southern California contingent is led by Liaison, who won the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in his last start in mid-December.  The Bob Baffert-trainee is expected to show up next in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis on February 4 at Santa Anita. 

Out of Bounds and Creative Cause are the other Southern California-based runners with Out of Bounds the slight edge based on his recent start in the Sham.  Out of Bounds was 10-1 in the Grade 3 Sham earlier this month, but did not run like it.  He stalked the early pace then ran right by the 1-2 favorite Secret Circle, who won the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint last year.  Out of Bounds is expected to start in the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10.

Creative Cause was arguably the top two-year-old in California last year with wins in the Grade 2 Best Pal at Del Mar and Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita.  In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the Giant’s Causeway-colt was third, beaten just over a length.  Trainer Mike Harrington could kick off his campaign with a run in the seven furlong San Vicente at Santa Anita on February 19.

With most of the New York runners wintering in Florida, including Remsen winner O’Prado Again, Alpha leads those in the Empire State.  Alpha was second to Union Rags in the Grade 1 Champagne then was eleventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before scoring an easy win in the Count Fleet at Aqueduct in early January.  His next start is to come in the Grade 3 Withers over the track on February 4.

Sabercat deserves a spot on this list after winning the $1,000,000 Jackpot at Delta Downs last year.  That win guaranteed him a spot in the field of 20 on the first Saturday in May as the winner’s purse was $600,000.  Sabercat’s last published work came in early December at Fair Grounds and his trainer Steve Asmussen has yet to set the next race.

In addition to the Withers at Aqueduct and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita the other three-year-old prep races taking place this weekend are the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and the WEBN at Turfway Park.

Who makes your Top 15 list?