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Santa Anita Thursday Pick-6

February 29th, 2012

Pick-6 carryover of over $135,000 for the Thursday card at Santa Anita; let’s dive right in.

First race in the sequence is race three, post time 5:02 ET, which is a claiming race for fillies and mares on the turf. Sarasota Sunshine is the 7-5 morning line favorite for trainer Mike Mitchell with Five Silver Stars the 8-5 second choice. Sarasota Sunshine may take up the early running under jockey Joel Rosario and could take them wire-to-wire. Cactus Flyer will be sitting in the garden spot and will get first run on the leader.

Race four is a maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies going six furlongs on the main track. Lady Vixen, T J’s Stormy Wit and Dance Thewayyouare are between 5-2 and 7-2 on the morning line and are the choices to take the race. Too Five n’ Ten is a first-time-starter out of the Brian Koriner barn and has been working a whole in the wind for his debut.

Down the hill for race five, which drew a field of nine. Salty Sarah is the tepid morning line favorite even though she is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita turf course. This is the first time she has been in a straight claiming race since October 2010. Linda Lou has a win over the course and will appreciate the return to a turf sprint. Yer Woman is an interesting long shot making her second start in the U.S. after a campaign on the turf in England. She finished second in her debut on the Tapeta at Golden Gate in her first start and should show her best on the return to turf.

The back half of the pick-6 starts with a short sprint race for claiming fillies and One Magical Girl is hoping the drop in class will get her back to the winner’s circle. Real Dream fits as does Maryjean on the step up in class as well as Purple Starduster. Purplestarduster and Maryjean exit the same race, which was won by Maryjean, but Purple Starduster may have more to give on Thursday second off the claim.

Back on the turf for race seven, this time going nine furlongs. Camelia Rose is the 8-5 morning line favorite making her first start in the U.S. for trainer Simon Callaghan after running in her native country of France. If she is ready to roll then the rest of the field is running for second. Glowing Spirit, Thisismystage and Chokecherymary are the best choices to upset the top pick.

The finale on Thursday is a maiden claiming race for three-year-old fillies going five and one-half furlongs on the main track. Lewkodonia, Zenett, Queen Mercury, Arinyes Love, Tribal Chatter, Live the Forth, Banana Split and Chilling Command are all between 4-1 and 8-1 on the morning line. Live the Forth is the morning line favorite and filly to beat, but use as many as you can. It’s tough way to end the Pick-6, which is shaping up like a good one.


Kentucky Derby Top 15 – Round 3

February 28th, 2012

The last time we left you Battle Hardened was winning the Tampa Bay Derby and I’ll Have Another was upsetting the Robert B. Lewis. Since then we have had major prep races from coast to coast and the BetAmerica Kentucky Derby Top 15 has a whole new look. In parentheses are the rankings from the previous Top 15.

1. Union Rags (1)
2. Gemologist (3)
3. Alpha (5)
4. El Padrino (10)
5. Out of Bounds (6)
6. Hansen (8)
7. Mark Valeski (NR)
8. Creative Cause (9)
9. Mr. Bowling (2)
10. Sabercat (12)
11. Fed Biz (13)
12. Battle Hardened (14)
13. I’ll Have Another (15)
14. Castaway (NR)
15. Secret Circle (NR)

Algorithms, who was number four in the list, is now off as his trainer, Todd Pletcher, has taken the colt off the Derby Trail. Algorithms was expected to be one of the betting choices in the Fountain of Youth last Saturday, but had to be scratched with a splint injury. Of course had it run it may have not mattered as Union Rags cemented himself as the # 1 colt on our list and the early horse to beat in the Derby. Discreet Dancer was 11 on the Top 15, but dropped out after finishing third in the FOY. He had distance questions going into that race, which were answered negatively.

A huge introduction into the Top 15 was from a Larry Jones-trained colt, but it was not from the previous # 2 Mr. Bowling. Mr. Bowling was expected to push El Padrino for favoritism in the Risen Star, but it was his stablemate Mark Valeski who provided the challenge. El Padrino won the race, but Mark Valeski earned respect. Mr. Bowling dropped down seven slots after finishing last of eleven in the race. One more bad finish and he will drop out completely. Mark Valeski is on the up-and-up.

Oaklawn’s prep schedule saw the Southwest split into two divisions this year and it was all about Bob Baffert, who sent Castaway to win the first and Secret Circle to win the second. Junebugred was seventh on the Top 15 last time, but dropped out after finishing in dead heat for sixth in the race won by Castaway. Castaway was coming off a smashing maiden win and made quick work of the division that some considered the strong of the two. Secret Circle still has distance questions, which is why he is ranked below Castaway, but his division was run in a full second faster. Scatman finished second to Secret Circle and is one to watch down in Hot Springs.

The major prep race in California was also ruled by Bob Baffert, but his winner, Drill, is expected to continue with the sprint stakes. It’s a good idea as the route experiment with him failed miserably. Creative Cause jumped up a spot, which was mainly due to others dropping out. He was third in the San Vicente to Drill, but it was a good starting point for the colt to make it to the Derby. Look for him next out in either the San Felipe at Santa Anita or the Rebel at Oaklawn Park.

This weekend’s three-year-old stakes action is kind of light with only the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on the menu, but it is expected to showcase Hansen and Gemologist. Both colts are squarely in the hunt for that number one ranking.


Gulfstream Park’s Mac Diarmida Stakes

February 25th, 2012

All eyes on Sunday at Gulfstream Park will be on the three-year-olds running in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and while it is a great field it is not the only graded stakes on the card. One race prior is the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida, which drew a deep field of ten.

The morning line favorite for the eleven-furlong race is Musketier at a lukewarm 3-1. Musketier is no stranger to the turf marathons having run only three times below twelve furlongs in his last twelve starts. In reality the eleven panels in the Mac Diarmida may be too short. He is winless in four starts at the distance including a second in this race last year. Next on the morning line are four horses between 4-1 and 6-1 on the morning line.

Center Divider, 4-1, is making his second start off a layoff after winning a nine-furlong turf race in January. The five-year-old horse will likely be battling for the minors on Sunday as he has yet to get over the Graded stakes hump. Simmard, 5-1, has not won since March 2011, but that was for jockey Javier Castellano, who will be back in the irons for this race. Both Simmard and Musketier are trained by Woodbine-based trainer Roger Attfield. Eagle Poise and Newsdad are next on the morning line at 6-1 and each have claims on the top spot. Eagle Poise was last seen winning a Grade 3 race on the Polytrack at Woodbline while Newsdad is coming off a front-running score in a marathon turf race at Gulfstream Park. It will be interesting to see if jockey Julien Leparoux goes to the front again as that was the first time the colt has been on the lead and there does not appear to be too much speed on for the race. Crimson China has Grade 1-winning connections, but needs to step up his game and Dixie Emperor is the new face in the race shipping north from Panama. The Kentucky-bred has spent his career defeating the competition in Panama and Venezuela.

Post time for the Mac Diarmida is 4:45 ET and is the second leg of the late pick-4, which kicks off in race nine at 4:17.


Gulfstream Park Saturday Pick-5

February 25th, 2012

The Pick-5 at Gulfstream Park is filled with stakes action. It starts with the Sabin Stakes in race eight, post time 3:49 ET, and includes The Very One and Davona Dale; let’s take a look.

The Sabin is appears to be a two-filly race on paper. Royal Delta is making her 2012 debut after winning the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic in November. Her main goal is Dubai. Awesome Maria has not run since winning the Grade 1 Odgen Phipps Handicap at Belmont Park in mid-June and is a perfect two-for-two at Gulfstream Park.

Race nine is an allowance race on the turf for fillies and mares and with the scratches of Mystical Star, Button Girl and American Angel the field is left with nine. Namaskara is the top choice coming off of back-to-back wins for her trainer Graham Motion. Bea Remembered makes her first U.S. start after a campaign in England and must be respected. Safe Crossing looks to be rounding back into form making her third start off a layoff.

Analysis for The Very One, race 10, can be found in this week’s BetAmerica Newsletter, but the top picks after scratches are Keertana, Perfect Shirl and Casablanca Smile. Long shot players may want to use Here to Win.

Race 11 is the Davona Dale and Grace Hall is expected to be a short-priced favorite. She is making her three-year-old debut after a spectacular two-year-old campaign. She started her career with three straight wins, including the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga, but could not get the better of Eclipse Award winner My Miss Aurelia in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Disposablepleasure is the second choice on the morning line for trainer Todd Pletcher and she is coming off a win in the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct in late November. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid and Salad Girl are long shots who have recent races and could round out the trifecta. Captivating Lass is another to use for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey John Velazquez.

The finale is a twelve-horse maiden claiming on the turf course with four horse between 4-1 and 6-1 on the morning line. Elusive Story and Delta Ranger are the top two making their first start in the claiming ranks after campaigns against maiden special weights. Elusive Story is the preferred of the two, but both are making their first start on the turf. Wire Transfer and Horizonbound are the next two and are also making their debut on the grass as are the rest of the field. Those with turf breeding are Brother Hale, Bold Forest and War General. With the expected short priced favorites in a couple of the other races this may be the spot to spread.

Tomorrow at Gulfstream Park is the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth for three-year-olds. It will go a long way to determine who the favorite may be for this year’s Kentucky Derby.


Santa Anita Friday Carryover

February 24th, 2012

santaanita Santa Anita Friday CarryoverPick-6 carryover of just over $71,000 on Friday at Santa Anita, which starts in race 3, post time 5:02 ET. Let’s take a look.

Race three is a maiden special weight on the downhill turf course with Blu Jon and Prime Number the morning line favorites.  Both are making their second career start where as the rest of the seven horse field is a combined 0-for-29.  Prime Number is the likely pace-setter and could go gate-to-wire to kick off the Pick-6.

Race four is a maiden claimer on the main track and Candy and Thunder is expected to win for fun.  The three-year-old Candy Ride-filly is dropping from the maiden special weight ranks with speed figures that tower over the field.  Chimi Dee is the new face making her first start for a trainer who is hitting on all cylinders this meet.

Back to the hill course for race five, this time for filly and mare claimers.  Brown Is Beige is the morning line favorite and could make it a double down the hill for jockey Kevin Krigger, who rides Prime Number in the third.  Hakuchi drops down into a claiming race for the first time and picks up an excellent turf rider in Corey Nakatani. 

The back half of the Pick-6 starts with a one-mile allowance race for fillies and mares, three-years-old and upward.  It took twelve races for Heidi Maria to win her first, but is the morning line favorite at 8-5.  Up to this point the Pick-6 has appeared chalky, but this could be the separator.  Use as many of the seven as possible.

It’s a downhill kind of day on Friday at Santa Anita as the seventh race is also on Santa Anita’s signature course.  Starspangled Heat is the tepid morning line favorite at 2-1 even though the gelding sports a one-for-twelve career record.  Trainer Barry Abrams has not had a good start to the meet, but did win a race on Thursday.  Los Bomberos could be the one that takes up the early lead under jockey Mike Smith and Mikey is awesome when he is on the front end in a turf race.  Circa’sgoldengear drops back to the level of his last win, but has been off since April 2011.  Star Nicholas goes first off-the-claim for trainer Kristin Mulhall and has a bullet work to boot.

The finale is a maiden claiming race for three-year-olds and may feature a short priced favorite in Take No Prisoners.  Trainer Bob Baffert, jockey Martin Garcia and owner Peachtree Stable are the same connections that won the Kentucky Oaks last year with Plum Pretty.  Take No Prisoners has a long way to go to reach that class level, but should be able to break his maiden on Friday.  You Know I Know and Givimaway are two first-time-starters, but runners from their barns improve with starts.  It is interesting to note that Givimaway is a half to Grade 1-winner Champ Pegasus, but is entered in this maiden claimer.  Also his name might suggest that they couldn’t give him away.


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