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Shoemaker Mile

May 31st, 2010

Hollywood Park Shoemaker MileMonday is Memorial Day and for horse racing that means graded stakes.  The graded stakes races cover the country from New Jersey to Kentucky to Florida to Texas to California.  Several of these races will feature some short priced favorites that will probably win, but in California the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile features a full, wide-open, field.

Favoritism in the race is going to be split up between Karelian and Compari with Mr. Gruff the probable third choice.  The problem with this is that all three of these horses will be vying for the lead.  Karelian is one of only two in the race with a Grade 1 victory and his last two races have been impressive.  Two back he beat Gio Ponti and in his last he ran away from Court Vision, but he will face pressure from Compari.  Compari has won six straight, but comes in off of foot problems and draws the outside post.  Mr. Gruff must prove he is not just a downhill turf course specialist, but he has also been impressive in his last two.  New pilot Joe Talamo must make a decision out of the gate as to where he is going to place Mr. Gruff in the race.  With the expected pace the race should set up for a closer and that is the other Grade 1 winner in the group, Global Hunter.  He has not raced since October of last year, but his trainer can get them ready to roll and has won with six of his seventeen starts this meet.  Another closer to consider is Gallant Son.  The stretch run should prove to be a wacker.


Arlington Park Weekend Stakes

May 28th, 2010

Arlington Park StakesOn Saturday at Arlington Park there will be two Grade 3 races run and both seemingly offer value.  The first stakes is the Hanshin, a one-turn, one-mile race for three-year-olds and older.  Gran Estreno solidified his liking for the Arlington synthetic surface when we went gate-to-wire in an allowance race earlier this month.  The seven-year-old horse is a perfect four-for-four over the course and does not appear to need the lead, which he most likely won’t have with two speed horses drawn to his inside.  Gran Estreno’s trainer Michael Stidham also has the horse drawn directly outside and that horse won last time in gate-to-wire fashion.  Wildeydsouthernboy doesn’t have the same win percentage as Gran Estreno over the course, but the gelding has won six of seven and should be running late.

The Arlington Matron is next and this race should produce a price.  Morning line favorite Floating Heart has one win in five starts on a synthetic surface and has not won a race in four starts in 2010.  Second choice Tizaqueena was absolutely dull last time out.  It was so bad that a line should be drawn right through it, but this will be her first time over synthetics. Askbut I Won’ttell will certainly take play off her last race, but is a definite bounce candidate.  If the track is playing fair then the one to back may be Haka.  Up until February Haka was always a filly that promised more than delivered, but she has found the winner’s circle in two straight and has never finished worse than second on synthetics.  Her last race also proved she doesn’t need to be too far back and the horse she beat, Funny Moon, came right back to win a Grade 2 at Belmont Park over 3-5 favorite Seattle Smooth.  At 8-1 on the morning line, Haka could be the right choice.


The Gamely

May 27th, 2010

Gamely at Hollywood ParkSaturday’s feature race at Hollywood Park is the Grade 1 Gamely for fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the turf course.  The race drew a field of eight, but it’s an awesome eight-horse field.  The probable favorite, Tuscan Evening, will face new challenges from Grade 1-placed Well Monied, Grade 3-winner Medaglia d’Amour, and multiple Grade 1-winner Forever Together.

Tuscan Evening has been able to stretch her miler-speed in her last two wins at nine and ten furlongs and may once again be able to do that on Saturday.  She is the only true front-runner in the race and if she can set her own fractions she will be gone.  Medaglia d’Amour is a perfect three-for-three since moving to the turf and could put pressure on the leader.  Her and General Consensus should be sitting a good trip if the favorite falters.  If for some reason a speed duel develops or if Tuscan Evening goes faster than expected, both Forever Together and Well Monied will be running late.  Well Monied had been off since August of last year, but came back to win stylishly last month.  As for Forever Together, there are really no other adjectives that have not been used to describe her already.  She may be tailing off at the age of six, but she is very fond of a firm turf course and Southern California.  Of course everyone is going to have to catch Tuscan Evening.


Penn National Friday Stakes

May 26th, 2010

Penn National StakesOn this holiday weekend the stakes action will be coast to coast and it all gets started under the lights at Penn National on Friday.  There are three stakes on the card, the Changing Times, the Wonders Delight, and the Danzig.  All three races should be decent betting races and gets underway with the Changing Times in race five.

Digger drops from the Grade 1 Carter Handicap to this spot and appears to be the most likely winner.  If a speed duel happens then Whistle Pig could be the one to upset.  The 14-time winner has won over this track and has been in the money in 33 of 42 career starts.  Liam’s Dream will most likely be a short price in the Wonders Delight.  Her only defeat came to Bickersons earlier this year in a Grade 2.  She is a PA-bred, but is by BC Classic winner Saint Liam.  The Danzig is the last stakes on the night and it’s a race where, based on speed figures, any one of six can win.  Foreign Argument, Alex’s Vision and Turbo Speed should all get pace to run at.  Even though Alex’s Vision is coming off a maiden victory six days prior, the three-year-old colt by Afleet Alex was nominated to the Triple Crown so he may be on his way up the ladder and at 8-1 could be the value play.


Monmouth Park Opening Day

May 21st, 2010

Monmouth Park 2010The Monmouth Park $50 million in 50 day meet gets underway this weekend and with full fields and 13 races it should provide for a great betting card.  The stakes race on the day is the $100,000 Elkwood at 8.5 furlongs over the turf course.  The race is part of the late pick-4, which gets underway one race before in race 10.

With the record number of entries the Elkwood actually has the fewest number of entrants on the day with seven.  Get Stormy, Kiss the Kid, and Staying On will all vie for favoritism with Get Stormy the 5-2 morning line choice.  The Stormy Atlantic colt has won his last four, but has not raced since November.  The layoff should not be a problem as he has run some good races in the past off a layoff.  Kiss the Kid is likely to take money for the local connections, but his last win cannot be found on the past performances.  This is the first time since August that Kiss the Kid has not raced in a graded stakes and he was second by a neck in that race.  Staying On is an obvious threat to the top two and is making his second start in the U.S.  Get Stormy seems to hold the pace advantage and if ready to roll off the break he could prove tough to catch.


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