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The weather at Churchill is great for the Oaks today, but the Derby field is not going to have that same luxury.  In the early wagering the favorite is the Todd Pletcher trained Super Saver.  He is 7-1 with Lookin at Lucky the second choice at 8-1.  There are currently no runners above 50-1, but its early and the pool is only slightly over $100,000.  There doesn’t seem to be any real surprises in the wagering more than 24 hours away.

With the expected rain it may be wise to upgrade a couple of horses who worked well this week. Paddy O’Prado worked very well as did Mission Impazible.  Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy turned in good works, but have post position problems.  Prior to the Derby the pick-4 sequence includes the Humana Distaff with Informed Decision, the wide-open Churchill Downs Stakes, and the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic with Court Vision.

The Derby and the CD stakes look like the areas to catch a price.  Informed Decision won the race last year, but looked dull in her comeback race.  Court Vision will be the favorite in the turf race, but there are alternatives to him.  Blue Street was a force at the Fair Grounds and is a nice 6-1 on the morning line. Loup Breton is also a nice horse for Julio Canani with Garrett Gomez.  There does not appear to be a single, but the 50-cent minimum makes it worth it.

The Kentucky Oaks is Friday and for the first time in awhile it drew a big field,  but is still expected to have a short priced favorite.  Blind Luck, from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn, is 6-5 on the morning line and is expected to go much lower.  The race goes as the 11th on the card and ends an all stakes pick-4.  Earlier in the card, last year’s Oaks winner, Rachel Alexandra, will make her second start of 2010 and she hopes to show an improved effort after finishing second in her first start.  She again meets Zardana, who upset her at the Fair Grounds.

When the connections of Devil May Care opted to run her in the Derby it solidified Blind Luck as the favorite.  Blind Luck was exceptional in her last start at Oaklawn when she powered away to easily defeat her three rivals. Of the 13 other fillies its hard to separate any other viable contender to upset the daughter of Pollard’s Vision.  Amen Hallelujah. Quiet Temper, Crisp, and Evening Jewel are all going to vie for second favorite. The play may be to key Blind Luck and use the others underneath.  Using all would cost a manageable $156 for each $1 bet and with the right horses could pay very well. Another option is to single Blind Luck in the pick-4 and use her underneath in an exacta or trifecta.  It should be a great day and the weather should be awesome, which may not be the case on Saturday.

The post position draw is over and some interesting things happened.  After Eskendereya was taken out earlier in the week and Devil May Care was put in, this morning saw Interactif and Endorsement withdrawn from the field.  This meant Jackson Bend, Backtalk, and Make Music for Me were now in the field.  Excluded from the 20 was Setsuko, who is looking terrific in the mornings.  Setsuko drew the rail for the American Turf on Friday and is a nice 4-1 on the morning line.

The draw was going fine until probable favorite Lookin at Lucky drew the rail.  There were goans from the crowd in the Secretariat Lounge, which continued after Sidney’s Candy next drew post 20.  The filly, Devil May Care, got a good post as did Mission Impazible and Awesome Act. Looking at the field Line of David and Conveyance will be sent, Sidney’s Candy will have to be used early to get position and American Lion should be up close.  Super Saver could tuck in just off the speed and Calvin will probably head to the rail.  Throw in Discreetly Mine, Paddy O’Prado, and Homeboykris and there should be a good pace.  With that in mind watch for Ice Box and Make Music for Me to make a late run. At this point it may be good the pick-4 is a 50-cent minimum so the “all-ball” can be used.  Looks like Derby 136 is going to be good.

This Saturday is the start of the Churchill Downs meet that could see the shortest priced Derby favorite since Point Given in 2001 and a possible matchup between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, but first things first.  The Derby Trial is the feature race this weekend, which drew a field of 10.  This is the final race before the Derby that allows runners to get graded stakes earnings and there are actually two horses entered looking to run back in a week.

Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince are those two, but enter the race with big question marks.  85 bolted in the Whirlaway and then cocked his head towards the infield in the Bay Shore.  The horse obviously has some issues, which could make for an interesting start of out of the gate.  He drew post 10 and it’s very likely he does something to impede the other runners.  Pleasant Prince is a nose away from being in the Derby, but it was decided to run him in the Blue Grass.  Perhaps Pleasant Prince didn’t care for the synthetics or maybe he is a good race-bad race type of horse.  One positive is that his only career win was at Churchill at this mile distance.  Others to consider are Hurricane Ike, Aikenite and possibly Miner’s Reserve.  He was well backed in the Florida Derby and ran horrible.  He has since rebounded with a best of 54 bullet work last Saturday.  85 is the fastest horse in the race and if he can run straight and strong then he will be tough to beat, but at 8-5 on the morning line he may be a play against.

The Derby is drawing near, there are only nine days left until the horses will break from the post and only six days until entries are taken next Wednesday.  For the most part the 20 horses that will make the 10-furlong trip are set, but there should be some slight changes at the bottom after the Derby Trial on Saturday.  At least two horses, Pleasant Prince and Eightyfiveinafifty are targeting the Derby if they run well in the Derby Trial.  Pleasant Prince would need to finish second and 85 would need to win.  Coming back in a week going from one turn to two isn’t ideal, but Don’t Get Mad parlayed his seven length score in the Derby Trial to a fourth place finish in the 2005 Derby.

This week’s trend deals with running position at the stretch call.  Since 2003 every horse to win the Derby had been first or second at the stretch call at least twice in his or her previous route races.  Not making the cut this year are Mission Impazible, Ice Box, American Lion, Dublin and Jackson Bend.  None of those horses will be among the favorites, but it is interested to note that only two of the winners since 2003 had only two races that fit the trend.  Likely second and third choices Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy each have two.  In comparison Eskendereya has been first or second at the stretch call in four of his six career races.  Combining all of the trends listed over the past three weeks there are four horses that stand out and those are Conveyance, Super Saver, Dean’s Kitten, and Eskendereya.