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Hollywood Derby

November 27th, 2009

The final Grade 1 turf stakes at Hollywood Park this weekend is the Hollywood Derby for three-year-olds on Sunday. The race drew a field of 12, goes as race 9, is the third leg in the late pick-4, and is an absolute crap shoot.

Battle of Hastings is sure to take a lot of money as he has won six times, the most in the field, and has over $1 million in earnings, also the most in the field. He did, however, draw post 10 and just finished a head behind the improving The Usual Q.T. The Usual Q.T. made the successful jump from state-bred stakes to graded stakes when he took the Grade 2 Oak Tree Derby on BC Saturday. He was 20-1 morning line that day and went off at 10.4-1. He fits, but will need to run the race of his life to win. There are two horses to win at the 1 ¼-mile distance of this race, Battle of Hastings, and two-time Grade 1 winner Take the Points. He has a shot shipping in from the East for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Edgar Prado. Meteore has promised to be a good horse, but appears to have a good race-bad race pattern. He is “scheduled” to run a good race and if allowed to relax early and make one run he could hit the board. An interesting long shot could be Black Bear Island. He finished second to Take the Points in the Grade 1 Secretariat. A two-month layoff produced a sixth place finish, but Black Bear Island may have found the mile too short. He appeared to be spinning his wheels down the late and then got going too late. With the extra 1/4-mile he could also be one to use.


The Matriarch

November 26th, 2009

Keeping with the Grade 1 turf stakes theme at Hollywood Park this weekend the Matriarch for fillies and mares will be run on Saturday. The field is small, seven, but there is no lack of talent. Humberto Ascanio will try to continue Bobby Frankel’s reign on this race with the great mare Ventura. Frankel had won eight of the previous 12 editions of the race. Ventura tried to run into a slow pace in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, but could only manage a second place finish to Informed Decision. Going two turns Ventura has a little more tactical speed and should be within striking distance turning for home. She is the class of the field, but will need to run her “A” race to win.

Diamondrella tried the boys in the BC Turf Sprint and finished 5 ¾-lengths back of lone-speed California Flag. That distance may have been a touch short and the stretch out to the mile distance will help her chances. Her two best races came at this distance in Grade 1 races. She makes her first start for former-jockey turned trainer Gary Stevens. The one negative for Ventura and Diamondrella is there could be no pace. Tuscan Evening and Taste’s Sis are the main speed, but those two could set their own easy pace. Taste’s Sis is in over her head, but Tuscan Evening could be tough in the lane. It could be a three horse dash to the wire. Let’s hope Ventura doesn’t do what she did in her last start at Hollywood. She needs to run to the wire and not pull herself up.


Citation Handicap

November 25th, 2009

The Grade 1 turf stakes action gets underway at Hollywood Park this Friday with the 32nd running of the Citation Handicap.  A contentious field of 10 entered the mile and one-sixteenth event, which goes as race nine on the 10 race card.

Fluke, previously trained by Bobby Frankel and now listed under his assistant Humberto Ascanio, drew the rail and comes in off two month layoff with a huge 104 speed figure.  He steps way up in class off of an allowance win, but Bobby was always one to move horses up to stakes.  Fluke has one previous race in this country in a graded stakes and finished fifth beaten 14 lengths in the Makers Mark earlier this year at Keeneland.  Fluke gets hot-riding Joe Talamo and could be an upset possibility.

Proudinsky is the other former-Bobby Frankel trained horse in the race and he drew two spots outside of Flue.  Proudinsky ran some very good races earlier this year, any of which would make him hard to beat.  He has finished in the money in 12 of his 20 career starts on the turf, but has yet to break through versus Grade 1 company.  He may also be racing at a distance that is less than ideal for him.

Ever a Friend was being pointed to the Breeders’ Cup after a lengthy layoff, but plans were changed and instead he started in an allowance race down the hill at Santa Anita.  Ever a Friend could not have been more impressive in that race making trainer Mike Mitchell wonder what could have been on Breeders’ Cup day.  Prior to the layoff, Ever a Friend won the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita and was a close second in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile over this turf course.  Ever a Friend looks like a major player in this wide open race.

The horse that could start favored is the Todd Pletcher trainee Cowboy Cal.  Cowboy Cal battled the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and faded to finish 10th behind repeat winner Goldikova.  Depending on the tactics of Joel Rosario aboard Ever a Friend, Cowboy Cal could again be on a lone lead.  However, Cowboy Cal drew to his outside and thus could make for a spirited opening quarter mile.  If allowed to relax on the lead Cowboy Cal will be tough to run down.  He is very game in the lane and does not like to be passed.

Enriched was cut out to be a good one as a half to Lava Man, but is stepping way up in class off of state-bred races.  Enriched was claimed two starts back by Lava Man’s previous trainer, Doug O’Neill, who is not having the best of meets with one win in 23 starts.  The outside horse, Times Gone By, could be a horse to use underneath.  He was very impressive at Del Mar and just finished fourth behind BC Turf second place horse Precious Passion.  Times Gone By cost $1.9 million at auction and is eventually going to be a top horse.  This could be the day he puts it all together, but must overcome the outside draw.

The remaining horses Skyrush, Blue Chagall, El Gato Malo and Monzante appear to be less likely win candidates based on form, but they do race for good connections.  The Citation has a scheduled post time of 4:30 PT and is the third leg of the late pick-4.


Wednesday Golden Gate Carryover

November 25th, 2009

There is a small $20K carryover on Wednesday at Golden Gate, but it looks like a good one to take a shot at.  The first leg, race 3, is a $20K claimer for fillies and mares and features a standout.  Perfect Hostess is 6-5 on the morning line and has won two in a row since shipping north from Del Mar.  The next leg may again feature a short price favorite in Streakin’ Mohican, who drops from an allowance race into this $12.5K claimer.  He did, however, have a poor race in his previous start with no excuses.  A pace duel up front helps Single Reason and Dust in Your Face who were separated by less than a length in their last.  Norcal Invader won at this claiming price four back and will be a big price.  Leg 3, race 5, a 5.5-furlong sprint for $4K claimers and this appears to be a spread race.

The next leg is another head scratcher with the three favorites drawn on the far outside.  Bag the Win and Mother’s Sauce are dropping to the $4K level after starts versus $6.25K claimers.  Stohlong just broke her maiden for $8K and does show a work since raced.  An interesting horse at 8-1 on the morning line is Lady Bradbury.  She drops from a non-conditioned claimer to this N2L and maker her first start in No Cal.  She has raced in N2L races twice previously with a third and a second.  She could be the knockout in a wide-open race.  Race 7, the next leg, is the feature on the day and Montana Fields looks like a standout on class, but has not raced since January.  If she doesn’t win then any of the other five look like they can win.  The last leg appears to be a two-horse race between the See Eye to Eye and Cortney’s Fame.  The third choice her is Crazy Tricia who is coming off of two grass efforts at higher-class levels.  She could make things interesting late.


The Moccasin

November 19th, 2009

A day after the two-year-old colts take center stage at Hollywood Park the two-year-old fillies get their chance to shine.  Sunday is the 23rd running of The Moccasin going seven furlongs.  Bob Baffert has two in the Prevue on Saturday and also has two here.  Both horses look to have bright futures, but Crisis of Spirit looks like the “now” horse.  She has won back-to-back races and her only loss was to Grade 1-placed Always A Princess.   The one thing this field lacks is pace, but Crisis of Spirit showed two-back she can be on the front end and still run her race.  The two who could race up front are Neeko and Bickersons.  Bickersons tumbles in class from three straight Grade 1’s to this non-graded stakes.  Her only win was at 5f on traditional dirt so a return to the pace could improve her game.  If the routes have not taken too much out of her she could be sitting a great pace, but Neeko will be close.  The only knock on the other Baffert is that she draws the rail.  The Moccasin goes as race eight and is the third leg of the late pick-4.


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