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Halloween is this Saturday and that means the end of Keeneland’s Fall Meet.  The last day means a mandatory pick-6 payout and they still have the two 50-cent pick-4’s.  The feature on the day is the Grade 2 Fayette for three-year-olds and up going nine furlongs on the main track.

On paper the race appears to be a match race between the two morning line favorites, Parading and Blame.  Parading is 7-5 off of two fourth place finishes in Grade 1’s in Southern California.  Parading’s jockey Kent Desormeaux is going to need to do a better job of making his run, but is the last jockey to win on him.  Parading’s best win, speed figure wise, came on this track and distance earlier this year.  Blame is the other choice at 9-5 and is making his second start off a layoff after finishing second to BC Classic-bound Regal Ransom.  The others seem simply outmatched but a Parading/Blame with Parading/Blame with all trifecta could produce a bit of a payoff.

With the Breeders’ Cup a little over a week away there are plenty of opportunities to build your bankroll for the two days.  One of the tracks that offer the best chances is Hawthorne, which has a 10-race program featuring six stakes for state-bred horses.  The last three stakes of the day make up the late pick-4, which looks like a great sequence to play.  Even the last race for $4,000 claimers looks like a wide-open affair.

Race seven and the start of the pick-4 is the Buck’s Boy Handicap for three-year-olds and up.  It’s possible that the single can be found in this race with Stonehouse.  Stonehouse won this race last year and has won his last two state-bred stakes at Hawthorne.  He did have a poor race last time, but that was in a Grade 2 in the mud.  The first two finishers out of that race, Awesome Gem and Nite Light, are scheduled to make their next start in one of the Breeders’ Cup races.  The alternative to Stonehouse may be the eight-year-old Fort Prado.  Fort Prado hasn’t seen a dirt main track since running second in a race on this program last year.  That race was the six furlong Lightning Jet Handicap, which Fort Prado is cross-entered in this year.  Since then Fort Prado has mainly sprinted on the turf, but did finished first and third in his two attempts around two-turns.

The next stakes is the Sun Power for two-year-old colts and geldings.  This race came up awfully tough as all 10 runners only have their maiden victory on their resume.  Only three of those 10 had a race outside of the maiden ranks with two seconds and a fifth.  One of those seconds belongs to Boston Outlaw who has the top career speed figure in the race.  Boston Outlaw’s last race was at Hoosier, a race in which he was “fractious at the gate,” but his maiden victory was at Arlington Park.  My Time to Star, Devient Behavior, and Officer McNeal are also ones to consider.  In fact this could be an “all” race and could produce a high payoff.

The final stakes race of the day is the Lightning Jet Handicap for three-year-olds and up sprinting on the main track.  If Fort Prado decides to run here then he should be the post time favorite, but there are still several ways to go.  The winner of last year’s race, High Expectations, is also scheduled to run, but has not won a race since the running last year.  The horse has one late run, but has not been able to find the wire.  The race, however, does set up for him as there is a lot of speed signed on.  Shrewd Operator just ran a 104 speed figure at Arlington, but has been second in two starts at Hawthorne.  Mighty Rule has four straight 90+ speed figures, but was second in all four.  Tripper’s Cart has won five straight races with the last four at Hoosier Park.

The last race on the card is another wide-open race for bottom level claimers.  This is also another race that could produce a price and could go a long way to building a bankroll for the Breeder’s Cup.

What’s Going On?

With the Breeder’s Cup closing in, the entries for the race divisions are a mash-up of what if’s…all due to the Santa Anita Pro-Ride racing surface. Adding to the craziness is several horses that have won the “Win and You’re In” races this past year.

Traditional turf horses are now looking at other divisions to race…most prominently Gio Ponti. An eight time winner on the turf lifetime opts for the Classic’s synthetic surface instead of the Turf. Gio Ponti raced only twice on synthetics, posting a win at Santa Anita back in December 2008

And what about Zenyatta? While Zenyatta looks to run in the Classic as opposed to the Lady’s Classic, the question is why? Is she better then the boys or just the ones running in the Classic?

The $5-million Classic drew 16 pre-entries, with three—Mastercraftsman, Bullsbay, and Chocolate Candy—being cross-entered and having first preferences in the Dirt Mile. In addition to Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle, and Quality Road, the headliners include Summer Bird, who is cross-entered in the Turf, Einstein, and Gio Ponti.

To demonstrate the chaotic nature of the Dirt Mile, the race drew 21 pre-entries, but only 12 with first preference. This race has drawn cross-entered horses from the Classic, the Mile, the Sprint, the Turf Sprint, and even the Turf.

Several of the traditional races came up light in numbers. The Ladies Classic has nine pre-entered horses, with only seven listed as first preference. The Turf also has nine pre-entered, with eight listed as first preference, and the Filly & Mare Turf has 10 pre-entered, with eight as first preference. Even the normally competitive Sentient Jet Sprint drew only 11 pre-entries, with nine as first preference…all in all; this will make the drawing for the Breeders Cup races more like a chess match instead of a horse race.

Fayette Stakes and Barbaro’s Brother Lentenor Debuts

Saturday is Keeneland’s closing day and the ninth race on the card is the 51^st running of the $150,000 – Grade 2 Fayette Stakes. This one and one eighth mile event will be contested by 10 over the all-weather Polytrack.

Parading looks best of this field and gets Kent Desormeaux back in the irons. Many of Desormeaux’s wins have been on route races on the Polytrack surface, which Parading likes immensely. Parading just missed wins in the Grade 1 Goodwood, finishing fourth in a field that had Mine That Bird, Chocolate Candy, Colonel John, Richard’s Kid, Tres Borrachos and Goodwood winner – Gitano Hernando.  Look for Parading at the wire again…this time with no one to outkick him.

Desormeaux, who was aboard for Parading’s back-to-back wins in the spring, regains the mount. They will break from post 3. Parading has won seven races in 20 starts and earned $500,046.

A pair of 3-year-olds, Blame and Giant Oak, return off runner-up finishes in grade II races and will carry 116 pounds apiece. Also in the field is the grade II-winning mare Tizfiz, a 5-year-old daughter of Tiznow will attempt to become the third female to win the Fayette.

Giant Oak will give Polytrack a try after doing most of his best work on turf, including a win in the Arlington Classic

The full field for the Fayette is below:

Lentenor, the full brother to 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, is scheduled to make his career debut on Saturday’s closing-day card.

The son of Dynformer is one of a dozen 2-year-olds entered in the fifth race, a $50,000 maiden special event going seven furlongs over the Polytrack.

Trained by Michael Matz, who conditioned Barbaro, Lentenor drew the No. 2 post under jockey Julien Leparoux.

Nicanor, the full brother to Barbaro and Lentenor, continues to recover from a stone bruise that forced him to be scratched out of the Virginia Derby (gr. II). The colt who has won both starts on grass will likely return to competition at Gulfstream Park in January 2010.

Track Host’s Six Illinois Stakes

There will be plenty of action this Saturday in the windy City as Hawthorne hosts six stakes races for Illinois-breds. All races will have $100k purse and post time will be 2:20 p.m. EST. The races are;

• $100,000 Powerless Handicap               3 & up F&M                  6 Furlongs
• $100,000 Lightning Jet Handicap           3 & up                          6 Furlongs
• $100,000 Illini Princess Handicap          3 & up F&M                  1 1/16 Miles
• $100,000 Buck’s Boy Handicap              3 & up                          1 1/16 Miles
• $100,000 Showtime Deb Stakes            2 yo Fillies                    6 Furlongs
• $100,000 Sun Power Stakes                  2 yo C&G                     6 Furlongs

The feature race is the Lightning Jet Handicap which has an even field of eleven runners lead by 4-1 morning line favorite Mighty Rule. Having been laid off since the end of August, this 6 year-old gelding has been very consistent, posting four second place finishes and a win in six starts. Mighty Rule gets Jose C. Ferrer and his .21 win percentage to ride.

Second favorite is Fort Prado, a colt more suited to the turf sprint is 9-2 on the morning line.

Big Rushlet and River Bear are listed at 6-1 morning line odds and have tangled with Might Rule in the past. River Bear had gotten the best of Mighty Rule earlier in the year, but River Bear has also been off since August and has some exceptional workouts since.