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KY Oaks Day

April 29th, 2009

Wednesday brings the post position draw for the Kentucky Derby, but it also means two days until Kentucky Oaks day. With the return of Zenyatta and the ultra-impressive Rachel Alexandra it should be a great day of racing. Their odds may not be that attractive though.

So where is one to focus their attention on Friday? People who do not regularly play the Pick 6 may want to dive into the pool. With probably si ngles Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra it could turn into a Pick 4.

Laragh may be a single on a lot of tickets, but there are three other horses that will be battling on the lead with here. With her wide draw she may have to prove she can rate though. If the turf comes up less than firm watch for horses who like to race near the lead. Last year the two route races on Oaks day were won in front running fashion. Magical Affair could be the one that runs them all down in the end.

The Turf Sprint looks like a three horse race between Smart Enough, Chamberlain Bridge, and Cannonball. If Smart Enough runs back to one of his 107 or 109 Beyers the race will be for second. Accredit is the only other entry with multiple triple digit Beyers, but the trainer is 0 for his last 14 in graded stakes.

Cool Coal Man may be the pace in the Alysheba, but based on his form pattern he may bounce. Mambo in Seattle should run a=2 0better race second off the layoff, but he didn’t really get good last year until the Fall. Bullsbay and Shift in Power are undefeated at Churchill and Bullsbay hasn’t lost at the distance. Of course it could be just as simple as Macho Again storming down the outside

The American Turf matches the east coast turf horse Stormalory against the west coast turf horse Battle of Hastings. Battle of Hastings has been impressive in his last two starts and has more tactical speed than Stormalory. Turfiste could be the controlling speed.

That brings an economical ticket to 3 x 1 x 1 x 5 x 2 x 1, which is $60 for the $2 bet. Of course add or subtract where you like and to fit your budget.


The History of the Kentucky Derby

April 27th, 2009

If you are alive and live on planet earth, you have heard of the Kentucky Derby. You may not know a lot about it, but you have heard about it. It has been called the most exciting two minutes in sports since that is about how long the race lasts.

It is only natural that the great state of Kentucky holds the honor of this auspicious race since thoroughbred horses have been bred and raced in Kentucky since late in the eighteenth century.

For people that are into dates, it was the year nineteen thirty-seven when Churchill Downs acquired that name after John and Henry Churchill who supplied the land where the track is located. It was on May 17th in the year eighteen seventy-five when the first official race was run here featuring a lineup of fifteen three year old horses in front a whopping ten thousand race fans.

The race was financially in bad shape until it was purchased in 1902 by a group of Louisville businessmen and it has flourished ever since that time.

To make things more competitive and fair to the horses, jockeys and fans, the Kentucky Derby limits the participants to three years olds and is officially run the first Sunday in May.

Back in 1931 the Kentucky Derby moved into the number one spot in the running of the Triple Crown then the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.

In the fifties the Kentucky Derby really began to come into it’s own. In 1952 on May the third, the public at large could sit in front of the television at home and watch the very first televised running of the Kentucky Derby then a scant two years later in 1954, for the very first time in history, the purse at the Kentucky Derby topped one hundred thousand dollars.

There has been some tarnish marks along the way in the history of the Kentucky Derby with Dancers Image becoming the first horse in history – in fact the ONLY horse in history – to be disqualified from winning the Kentucky Derby in 1968 after traces of an anti-inflammatory analgesic drug known as phenylbutazone was found in the analysis of the horses urine. A few years later the rules at the Kentucky Derby were changed to allow horses to run the race while using phenylbutazone.

In 1973 the horse Secretariat broke the two-minute mark and came in at one minute and fifty-nine point five seconds making it the fasted Kentucky Derby ever.

In the year 2004, for the first time in history the jockeys were allowed to sport advertising logos on the outfits they wore. They won that right through legalities that ended in a court order forcing the Kentucky Derby to allow it.

Up until the year 2005 only the top four horses took home a share of the purse. In that year it was changed to include the top five finishers all getting a slice of the proverbial winning pie that is known as the Kentucky Derby’s purse.


Saturday Stakes Recap

April 27th, 2009

With respect to the other stakes races this weekend there were two that may play a role in this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, the Withers at Aqueduct and the Derby Trial at Churchill. The Withers was easily won by Mr. Fantasy even after acting up in the paddock and at the gate. I was interested in the result from the “key race” angle. I Want Revenge and Mr. Fantasy went head-to-head in the Gotham where MF was actually the post-time favorite. IWR went on to defeat MF in that race by almost 9 and after the Withers result, I Want Revenge is looking like the strong Derby post-time favorite.

The Derby Trial was won by Hull, who made it three for three in his short career, but what was interesting was the 5th place effort by Silver City and the 7th place effort by Santana Six. In sort of the opposite of the Withers perhaps this result plays negatively for Dunkirk and Win Willy. It was also interesting to see that Gulfstream Park shippers were a combined 1 for 20 opening weekend and Fair Grounds shippers were 7 for 12. That doesn’t include Hull who broke his maiden at FG before running at Turfway last. Friesan Fire is starting to look better and better.


Odds

April 23rd, 2009

The last two races at Keeneland today were perfect examples of a handicapping angle that I often use, checking the odds. In race 8 there was a heavy favorite in the 8 Dress Rehearsal, but the interesting odds came on the 1 Winter View. I seemed to be a day late with the Sheppard trained/Augustin owned turf horse, but I did question not using Leparoux there. With Leparoux up today, Winter View opened at 3-1 off the 8-1 morning line. She went off at 9-2, but won impressively considering closing into a pedestrian pace.

While Winter View was expected to take money what was not expected was the 1, Western Prospector, taking money. The horse was 12-1 on the morning line and opend up at 4-1. The colt steadily drifted up to 7-1 and just like Winter View won off impressively. There are many advantages to playing online at home and the being able to watch the toteboard from open to close is definitely one of them.


Pick 4Keeneland

April 21st, 2009

This week brings an end to the Keeneland meet, which means only three more days to bet Kent Desormeaux and Julien Leparoux.  Through 117 races the two have combined to win 38 or almost a third of the races.  The best part is that their average win prices are over $11.

The first chance at a price comes in Race 6 on Wednesday in which both Leparoux and Desormeaux have a mount.  The Leparoux charge is 7-2 on the morning line, but ŒMeaux is on the 12-1 morning line It¹s a Game.  It¹s a Game is making her second start off a layoff for a trainer who is 4-7 at the meet.  What drew my attention is the jockey switch.  T ony Farina to Kent Desormeaux!  It is a little interesting Leparoux doesn¹t ride here as he rides Forever Together for this owner/trainer team.

And if you are playing race 8 the same day make sure you use Impressionism. She doesn’t win often, but has finished either second or third in 11 of her 20 career races.  She’ll appreciate the move back to the lawn.


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